Is Senator McCain Serious About Border Enforcement?
By Dan McLaughlin Posted in 2008 | Immigration | John McCain — Comments (19) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Mark Krikorian, one of the leading immigration hardliners and the man whose immigration plan Mike Huckabee has adopted, asks the following:
Does Anyone Believe McCain's Change of Heart?
McCain claims to have heard the voice of the people, and now ostensibly supports enforcing the border before implementing an amnesty (though I haven't heard him support any other prerequisites, like a functioning, universal work-verification system, 100% deportation of criminals upon completion of their sentences, withholding federal funds from cities defying federal immigration law, etc).
It's a fair question. Speaking as a McCain-sympathizing Rudy supporter, let me provide what I think is the answer here.
As I have noted before, Senator McCain, like each of the other main contenders, has changed his tune on some issues; in fact, immigration is probably the issue on which these five candidates have done the most shifting of their rhetoric and their positions over time, including a number of outright flip-flops. That said, there is a difference between a flip-flop and a strategic retreat in response to a collision with political reality, and I think the latter is what McCain is doing. He's not claiming he has changed his opinion - he is clearly still a believer in the merits of "comprehensive immigration reform" - he's just promising to change his behavior in response to a setback.
But do we believe him? My best guess, which is consistent with my general view that McCain may be worth buying but with the understanding up front of the tradeoff of remorse we will pay down the road, is as follows:
1. McCain has, in fact, concluded that it's politically impossible to get a comprehensive bill (including all the elements in McCain-Kennedy) through the Congress until some visible progress is shown on enforcement, just as the Clintons concluded after 1994 that a comprehensive health care plan would not pass.
2. Therefore, McCain will pursue stepped-up enforcement first, and will not push for a comprehensive immigration bill in 2009.
3. McCain's idea of what constitutes "stepped-up enforcement" and "visible progress" is very different from that of people like Krikorian, and probably not radically different from some of the things Bush has done. Expect some visible fence-construction and a few more big enforcement cases against employers, and maybe some funding for a verification system. Do not expect a crackdown on 'sanctuary cities' or radically stepped-up numbers of deportations.
4. Nobody wants to try to do a comprehensive immigration bill in an election year, so 2010 is out as well.
5. I would expect that McCain, who turns 75 in the summer of 2011 and is unlikely at that point to have the wind at his back as far as re-election or perhaps even re-nomination is concerned, will then seek to bring back a comprehensive bill that year, especially if the Democrats control Congress. The bill will probably have slightly tougher enforcement provisions than this year's bill, if only to continue things done in 2009-10, but it will not make it any more difficult for current illegal aliens to gain citizenship. And it will yet again come down to whether there are enough Congressional Republicans, plus a handful of far-lefties who don't want any compromise at all, around to defeat the bill.
That's my best guess. Whether you think that's an acceptable result probably depends on whether or not you think McCain is already an unacceptable option.
Texas Govenor Perry and Senator Hutchison will NOT build a fence but would ue the money to help bus the invaders in.
Keep in mind that Hutchison, who thinks she is going to be the next Texas govenor, killed the fence in the dark of night.
As I said, I have no illusions that McCain's efforts to show added enforcement will be unsatisfactory to the border-hawk faction.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
none of the above strategy will come to fruition, assuming the Dems also hold Congress.
When McCain said that I, and every other American wouldn't be willing to pick lettuce in Yuma, Arizona for $50/hr., I scrubbed him from my cortex with a Brillo pad. I will never consider him a viable candidate again. When he said that illegals who had years of Social Security contributions and became legal should have access to that money because "they had earned it", I knew he was a donkey in elephant's clothing. He will say whatever he has to say to get elected, and I can't believe anyone would even consider him. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!
P.S. I think he'd be a great candidate for one of Mexico's corrupt states since that seems to be where his loyalties lie!
Tim Schieferecke
You are entitled to your opinion of Sen. McCain but we are trying to cut back on people using cutesy derogatory versions of people's names, especially fellow Republicans. It's an important step towards maintaining some measure of civility around these parts and I would strongly recommend that you respect it.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Senator McCain, bless him, is always tempted to roll over in the name of bipartisan comity.
To me, this is the strongest argument for Rudy vs. McCain. Rudy compromises once he gets the essentials of what he wants.
illegal immigrants for committing crimes.
This is the figure he keeps citing. (To be honest, I'm not sure where it comes from.) He thinks that 2 mil out of 12 mil illegal immigrants have committed crimes and should go immediately.
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
is who he cites for the 2 million number.
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W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
How comforting, McCain would deport the 2 million who've been caught committing crimes (or however many of those he can find). That's supposed to provide cover for rewarding 10+ million illegals for their violation of our sovereignty, by selling them green cards for a price (oops, a "fine") so cheap that law-respecting applicants for immigration would gladly pay twice that price for a green card.
But McCain won't give the law-respecting applicants for immigration a chance to get a green card for the same "fine" that illegals are offered. That opportunity for a cheap green card is reserved only for those who don't respect our right to withhold consent to enter our country.
Fold 1... McCain "says".
Fold 2... Huckabee "says".
Neither of these guys will deliver. They will both find a way to work with the Dems and get amnesty resurected and the enforcement provisions killed.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I believe that McCain is as close to W as you can get on this issue. W, like McCain, seems to have figured out that he can't win on this issue without some improvement on enforcement. W has certainly stepped it up a bit on enforcement. Does that mean he wouldn't sign pretty much any old amnesty bill that got to his desk? Nope. Does that mean he would continue to be interested in stepping up enforcement after he gets what he wants? Nope.
The reason this matters: As you point out in #1, it is currently impossible for him to get what he wants. This won't necessarily be the case in 2009. The Democrats are expected to pick up seats in the Senate. Who knows what will happen in the House. It wouldn't take much before an amnesty bill becomes a real possibility.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
McCain in what I've seen has stated everything tatically: To get what he wants, he must persuade enough people that the government is trustworthy on enforcement.
If the desire to get what he wants would cause him, as President, to do the right thing, I'll take it. Hey, it worked with Bill Clinton.
I'd guess he'd probably have the best chance of all of the candidates of getting something positive accomplished on the issue of illegal immigration, because he can get the support of some Dhimmicrats.
I honestly don't see much at all getting done, best intentions aside, with any of the others. Not with the current Congress or the one we may very well see in 2009.
I also don't think what he wants is really all that different from what most of the other R candidates want (Fred being the exception). He says he's seen the light w/r/t enforcement first, and I believe him. His problem, I think (YMMV), is the way he speaks to conservatives about it, using language that gives the impression of his being soft on the issue (i.e. "they are God's children"). I think he's trying to hold on to moderates/independents and what few crossover Dems there may be, not to mention the Hispanic vote. That's not a bad strategy, although he's not running in the general election yet. He has to GET there, first.
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Buy a tank of gas for Fred's truck!
Has he seen the light because enforcement is right? I dunno, however I doubt it. I believe that illegal "immigration" will continue as a huge issue - McCain did not get a positive reception on that issue in Michigan. A great bi-partisan majority of the US wants illegal "immigration" halted, our borders secured for real, & a huge crackdown on employers big & small who hire/exploit illegal alien labor. The democrat candidates are very weak & vulnerable on this issue; our candidate must be strong on this issue.
Why trust him when he has proven to be a maverick and do his own thing no matter what it does to the Party he is supposedly a member of?
John McCain is a certified KOOK!
...I do not think it means what you think it means.
I will note that McCain has talked extensively about ceding the decision of when the border is secure to the Governors of the 4 border states. This is probably partly a recognition that he is not trusted on the issue and a recognition that Washington is not trusted on the issue. Thus, while I agree that his enforcement plans would not be The Great Wall of The Rio, he will have to do enough to get someone else to accept the border is secure and that someone else will probably be getting federal dollars until they agree the border is secure.
Second, I think McCain is more likely to pursue a Guest Worker program than an earned legalization program for most illegals. I am not generally a fan of Guest Worker programs because they discourage assimilation, but they seem more popular among the This Is Unfair segment of the population.
Third, and probably most importantly, McCain sees immigration enforcement as a way to win back trust in government. He is very disturbed at the lack of trust the people have in Washington. And unlike Ds, he doesn't think you can buy trust. He thinks enforcing the borders would show people that the government can work and can do what it is supposed to do. This motivation will help him make border enforcement more of a priority, albeit for different reasons than many immigration hawks.
Otherwise, I think you have a good feeling for what would happen under a President McCain on immigration.
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