Harry Potter and the Ghastly Climate Change
By Next93 Posted in Technology — Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In one of the recent Harry Potter movies, the kids were taking a class on fortune-telling (“divination”). The teacher is a complete fraud and the class is gibberish, and in a classical satire of what I picture liberal arts classes to be like, they’re doing their best to parrot the nonsense in a way that they hope will make their instructor think that they’ve internalized it. Gazing at apparently contradictory portents in Harry’s tealeaves, Ron’s prediction is “So you’re going to be miserable, Harry, but you’re going to enjoy it”.
I bring this up because of a new climate prediction that’s been released.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/science/earth/01climate.html?ex=121039...
This one has taken the step of mixing real-world data with climate models, and when fed data from the 80’s and 90’s, apparently did a reasonable job of predicting the climate of the current decade. What does it predict for the coming decade (which is about as far as its’ “planning horizon” stretches)?
Well, according to the article, we’re going to see a “slight” cooling trend in North America and Europe. The model’s authors went to lengths to point out that this predicted cooling, which is based on empirical data, is only *temporary*, and masks the (theoretical) long term trend. So, basically, it’s going to be cooler while it’s getting warmer.
I wonder if Hermione could tell me where I could find a stake sharp enough to drive through the heart of this beast?
If you read the recent NASA (those ghastly AGW deniers) report on the Pacific decadal Oscillation, we will see cooling for the next 20 - 30 years. Since it's been cooling since 1998, that means we will have experienced approx 30 - 40 years of cooling. That's 30 - 40 years of increasing CO2 emissions and falling averag temperatures. When compared to only 38 years of previous warming coinciding with increasing CO2 emissions, can we realistically say that AGW is real? ( Particularly since the previous cycle of appreciable warming (from 1910 to 1940) did not coincide with large increases of atmospheric CO2 emissions, but the previous cycle of cooling (from approx 1940 to 1976) did coincide with increasing CO2?
Seems kind of hard to make the data fit the script.
You're probably referring to this NASA Report. The PDO has something like a 30+ year cycle time, and it may be shifting to the "cooling" phase. This NASA say, and they say it may last 30 years. What the don't say is that this means nett cooling - ie declining global temperatures, for that time.
From the peak in 1998.
So are you saying we should ignore the actual decline because its not being predicted* ?
*There are other sources who are predicting decline but I guess the liturgy on that is ignore them unless they are needed later to show the AGW crowd was correct.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
at the Baghdad airport!" False as Michael Jackson being a heterosexual. False as Stalin being a nice guy. Yep, GW is the biggest poo sandwich ever force served to the American public. You can have my sandwich if you like. Big Al's GW feces sandwich looks too expensive to me. Doesn't look too appetizing either. Eat all you want though.
Tim Schieferecke
Tim Schieferecke
If they call for a slight cooling i'd be buying cold weather gear and pricing tropical retreats.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I thought it was Harry Potter and the Balance of Earth?
A giant ice cube.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
...referring to the abysmal films rather than the great books.
But, they were good movies. Those of use who have read the books (I read the first four in one weekend...no I don't have an addictive personality) know that there is so much more in the books.
Now also found at The Minority Report
Are you suggesting that GW isn't linear that it therefore is false?
That would be like saying that since a couple of days in June were cooler than the previous days than therefore july won't be hot.