It looks like US Senate Candidate Rob Portman will be forced to waste money fighting an ad war with primary opponent Tom Ganley.  The Cleveland car dealer seems intent on spending millions of his own money despite little likelihood of winning.  He has made his first ad buy as part of that strategy:

Republican Senate candidate Tom Ganley, the car dealer from Cleveland who has said he will put up millions of dollars in his own money on the race, is on the air statewide with an ad that aims to highlight his ability to create jobs, according to his campaign.

Ganley is trying to buy his way into a competitive primary.  Unlike Portman who is well on his way to visiting all 88 counties in Ohio, and has been tirelessly campaigning, Ganley is simply vowing to spend millions on advertising.  The only winners in this battle are going to be TV stations and ad consultants.

Ganley has a mistaken view of the recent race in NY-23 and is going to waste a lot of time, effort and money as a result. For why, see below.

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From the diaries, by Erick

There are some lessons to be learned from NY-23 regarding third party efforts and why limited government conservatives need to play within a two party system. Even in New York, one of only five states to embrace fusion politics (allowing a candidate to run on one ballot as the candidate of multiple parties and combine his total vote between the parties), , Doug Hoffman was unable to win on the Conservative Party ticket. Arguably, the RNC and NRCC botched everything so badly in the race that Hoffman might have won as the Conservative Party candidate if the Republicans had not spent over a million in muddling things up. Even had he won, it’s hardly an argument that the entire approach would work nationally. In fact, I would argue that those who advocating for and working in third parties are empowering everything and everyone that is wrong with the political system as it now stands.

American politics always has been, and for the foreseeable future, will be, a two party system. I’ve heard arguments that the current two party system is a creation of the early 20^th century progressives. It’s not. When political parties started in America, really around the 1800 election, there were the Democrat-Republican Party and the Federalist Party, and it has always been that way: two major, dominant political parties have controlled American politics. Some will point out that the Whig party used to exist as a major party and gave way to the Republican Party, as though somehow that’s an argument for third parties being effective. It’s not. It wasn’t like there were then three major political parties in America. The Whig Party vacated the political stage and the Republican Party entered stage left, leaving . . . two major political parties.

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Republicans are - rightly - crowing this morning about the GOP’s victories in the New Jersey Governor’s race and a battery of races in Virginia from the Governorship on down and what they say about the turn in the national mood, if not in a pro-Republican direction then at least in a direction that’s sufficiently hostile to the Democrats that voters in states won by Obama and dominated by the Democrats in the last few years are willing to give individual Republicans another chance.

But the key word there, even in an across-the-board sweep like happened in Virginia, is individual. There remains an ongoing battle on the Right over how Republicans choose which candidates to support - who voters and the national party organs should back in primaries, when and whether to support third party candidacies, etc. It’s a battle intensified by Doug Hoffman’s loss in the NY-23 race after the NRCC-backed candidate, Dede Scoazzafava, ended up swinging the race to the Democrats when she endorsed Bill Owens. But in making sense of such debates, this is a point that cannot be stressed enough: no matter how favorable or unfavorable the overall national climate may be, no matter what ideological compass you want the party to follow, you can’t ever overlook the importance of the individual candidates and the conditions they run in. I said it in 2008 with regard to presidential campaigns, and it’s true as well of races for Governor, Senate or House: ideas don’t run for president, people do.

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The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.

This is a huge win for conservatives.

“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.

There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.

On his third trip to the polls, a Hoffman supporter and poll watcher had his tires slashed this afternoon —as you can see he had a hoffman sign in his back window.

A police report has been filed.

[updated:] Local police are not willing to confirm it was a tire slashing and say it could be that the poll watcher ran over a bottle.

Contra the empty RNC phone bank room from below, Ben Smith is reporting that the RNC has made 140,000 calls into NY-23 since Sunday for Hoffman.

Good.

UPDATE: On a 4:30 conference call, the Hoffman campaign is downright mocking at the idea the RNC has helped them on the ground.

Talking to Andy Roth at Club For Growth, I’ve gotten a few tips on things to look out for in New York tonight. By the way, if you are looking for a place to send some money, consider that the Club got in early for Doug Hoffman and did great work. We’re going to need their coffers replenished for 2010. Go join now and give.

The eastern part of the district is where Owens is strongest. He was leading there before Dede got out of the race, and her exit should not change much there. Do not be worried if Owens comes out ahead in Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties.

The western part of the district is the most conservative. This should be strong territory for Hoffman. The counties are Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. Oswego is the largest county in the district.

The northern part of the district is Dede’s home area, where she was strongest. She will likely still retain more votes here than anywhere else. Hoffman should win here, but if we see Owens doing well in this area, we will know that Dede’s supporters are moving in the wrong direction. St. Lawrence and Jefferson Counties are the big ones here, and there is also Lewis.

Finally, there are two small counties, Hamilton and Fulton, which are in the Albany media market. Because of superior resource allocation here by the Dems, we suspect that Owens wins here.

The attached picture was taken at 8:30 pm last night in the main call center room at the RNC where the volunteers sit for phone banking. There were about 10 people there from 5:30-8. After that? Well . . . you get the point.

Oh, and let’s not forget Harmer, Christie, and McDonnell.

I’m told, by the way, that there are some private rooms with just phones. Certainly, there could have been people in those rooms, but this is where the volunteers were told to go last night. Not a great effort.

There is something about New York’s 23rd Congressional District that reporters and the GOP establishment are ignoring. According to the PPP poll and the Sienna poll, Doug Hoffman is expanding the base of voters willing to vote for a conservative, not shrinking the base as the press alleges.

In talking about this race this morning with Joe Scarborough on his radio show, he talked about the parallels to his race in 1994. Getting on Lexis-Nexis and doing some digging was an eye opening experience.

It is also a powerful reminder for House Republicans wanting to take back the House that they are going to need to ignore the NRCC and instead go right where right can win.

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There is poll volatility (PDF) in the NY-23 race. PPP has Hoffman over 50%. Sienna has him at 41%.

Both have Owens hovering in the mid-thirties.

Isn’t it interesting, by the way, that for the last month Owens has held in the mid-thirties while everyone else has bounced around him and in New Jersey Corzine has held around 41% while everyone bounced around him.

I wonder if that is because of the negativity associated with the Republican brand. People don’t want to vote for Owens or Corzine, but they just aren’t sure that voting for the R will leave them better off. That may very well be why Hoffman benefited from not being the Republican in the race for so long.

And it should serve as notice to the GOP that conservative polls better than Republican.

(H/t Ironman)

According to PPP, Doug Hoffman has raced into the lead against Owens, taking 51% to Owens’ 34%

The race, however, is not over and there is no guarantee the polling is even halfway accurate. That is not to slight PPP, it just happens to be a crazy race, with a last minute drop out, and lots of weekend polling scores to make up the foundation.

But, and this is a bit but, a lot of third party and internal polling does suggest Hoffman has gone into the lead. Likewise, it looks from PPP and other polling that even before Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman had a big lead among Republican voters. Additionally, of the votes Scozzafava was holding on to, they were loyal Republicans and women.

If Hoffman can appeal to women, he should be okay. Scozzafava’s Republican votes will either go to him or stay home.

Now what they need are bodies.  Doug Hoffman’s calling for help… so if you have a day or two to spare, get thee hence to NY-23.

UPDATE: See also Hot Air.

Dede Scozzafava is throwing her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens.

She and her husband are working with union activists to drive the vote up for the Democrat.

The Republican Party spent $900,000.00 to help her and this is how she repays them.

And Pete Sessions, Chairman of the NRCC, and Guy Harrison, Executive Director of the NRCC, still have their jobs and are failing to take responsibility for this disaster, instead blaming conservatives.

Hoffman has not won. Yet.

Keep up the pressure. Redouble your efforts. Let’s be excited by the victory we have had, but don’t stand out. Stand up for Doug Hoffman.

PS - As one of our contributors noted private: It speaks volumes about the pathetic leadership of the GOP right now that we are beating up the GOP today instead of beating up the Democrats. Now is the time to beat up the Democrats and drive Hoffman, McDonnell, and Christie to victory on Tuesday.

Mike Pence refused to endorse Dede Scozzafava. Being, however, the Chairman of the House Republican Conference, it really would have been bad form of him to go all in with Hoffman. Being in that position demands some party loyalty. So behind the scenes Pence has made clear he was unhappy with this whole sordid mess and has refused to cooperate or fund the madness.

Today he can do what he has wanted to do the whole time — endorse Doug Hoffman.

Conservatives are now fully united and fighting. The race is not offer. We must fight for Hoffman now.

Pence’s statement is below the fold.

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It is good to see Jeb Hensarling leading the rush to Hoffman this morning. I was more critical than I should have been by Jeb’s endorsement of Scozzafava. The party leadership persuaded too many good guys to go with her and the conservatives trusted the assessment.

It’s outstanding to see Jeb leading the tide this morning as those who sat on the sidelines or went with Dede now are free to choose their conscience and stand with the conservative.

His statement:

I am endorsing Doug Hoffman’s candidacy in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Doug will fight Speaker Pelosi’s efforts to takeover our health care system and work with us to reign-in the record spending, debts and deficits that President Obama and the Democrat Congress are piling onto the shoulders of our children and grandchildren.

I respect DeDe Scozzafava’s decision to leave the race and am gratified by it. When I agreed to support her, I didn’t think a third party candidate could win and I was wrong. Clearly, Hoffman’s conservative principles are far more in line with my own, and I welcome this opportunity to endorse him. I am excited about this opportunity and will welcome him to Congress.

Editor’s Note: I suggest you read carefully as I am not an advocate of purging people like Susan Collins or the typical “RINO” as there are some races where a conservative really cannot win. I am, however, serious that the GOP must purge its staff and leaders who have decided to always go with the liberal. In particular, the NRCC, NRSC, and RNC need some wholesale job terminations of senior staff.

The race for NY-23 has taken a startling, exciting twist. Regardless of what happens on Tuesday, we know for certain the Republican candidate will not, after getting $900,000.00 in support from the Washington GOP Establishment, will not win. Scozzafava dropped out.

This is a stunning rebuke to the Republican Establishment in Washington.

The RNC and the NRCC deserve the rebuke — a rebuke they will get even if Hoffman loses because it is now virtually impossible for the Republican to win.

How much did the NRCC and RNC spend to elect a leftist? Roughly $900,000.00 of your donated money. And let’s not mince words about it. Objectively, despite what her Republican supporters say, Dede Scozzafava is a leftist, to the left of the Democrat on a host of issues that will matter in this 111th Congress.

Scozzafava’s supporters have called her a “moderate,” but her views on abortion, marriage, forced unionization, taxes, the environment, etc. etc. etc. are opposed by most Americans and most people in NY-23.

How many “great” men are going to have egg on their face when Scozzafava loses?

Pete Sessions, the Chairman of the NRCC, is now batting his eye lashes at Doug Hoffman. He is hiding behind a fig leaf. Having gone all in for Scozzafava, hoodwinked good men into soiling their reputations by standing behind this leftist, and wasting valuable resources on a victory he will not see, only now is Sessions tacitly declaring defeat.

Relationships between the Republican establishment in Washington and the conservative movement are in rubble. Thanks to Pete Sessions NOT Doug Hoffman, there is new inspiration for a third party movement to challenge the GOP — a movement that will only help the Democrats.

Good men in the GOP are now going to be challenged in primaries because of the ill-will the NRCC has generated in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Of all the talk of “purity test” straw men, everyone must remember it was the GOP who insisted on purely Republican candidates. It was Scozzafava’s supporters who claimed we conservatives wanted a “purity test” for candidates. That was and is nonsense. Conservatives are willing to make compromises and choose lesser Republicans who can win in races a conservative most likely cannot. NY-23 was never one of those places and now the GOP is in a world of hurt.

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Dede Scozzafava has dropped out of the NY-23 race.

In her statement, she said

I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

She did not endorse Hoffman or Owens. No doubt she’ll vote for Owens.

More importantly, WE WON!

Now, I hope everyone rallies behind Hoffman and gives him the momentum and energy he needs to win on Tuesday. Let’s rally.

I said this was our hill to die on, but to paraphrase Patton, we won my making the other guys die on our Hill!

John Gizzi gets top billing today at Human Events and is covering NY-23.

“The mayor of Plattsburgh just endorsed us and ten more [Republican town] committee members came out for Doug.  And ten more congressman endorsed him today.  We’re on a roll!  The debate’s starting — gotta go.”  

That was my conversation yesterday with Rob Ryan, spokesman for Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd District.

Ryan was breaking the big news to me:  that more local Republican Party officials and elected officials in and out of the upstate district were crossing party lines to back Hoffman over liberal GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava.

I am told reliably, but have not yet confirmed, that Governor George Pataki endorsed Doug Hoffman tonight at a Conservative Party event.

As Matt Drudge would say: Developing . . .

If this is so, this is huge. Pataki routinely won NY-23 by huge margins. He remains quite popular up there.

UPDATE: IT IS CONFIRMED. Gov. George Pataki has endorsed Doug Hoffman for the United States Congress.

Pataki’s statement:

Statement from Governor George E. Pataki

As someone personally engaged in the way of life in the Adirondacks and Northern New York, I’m deeply concerned about the course of our nation and the outcome of the election in the 23rd Congressional District.

Simply put, we cannot afford to give another vote to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid we cannot afford another vote for higher taxes, we cannot afford another vote for government run health care and we absolutely cannot afford another vote to take away from hard working men and women the right to secret ballot.

That is why tonight, I’m proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.

Doug Hoffman will stand up to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. He will fight for all the residents of northern New York. He will fight for our proud servicemen and women at Fort Drum, our dairy farmers in Lowville and our manufacturers in Plattsburgh.

As a businessman, and as a life-long resident of the North Country Doug Hoffman understands the need to lower taxes on working families, the need to stand tall against terror and he won’t back phony stimulus programs that fail to create the jobs we need and leaves a mountain of debt to our children.

When elected to Congress Doug will work to reduce our taxes, he will stand tall against those who despise our freedoms and he will be a vigilant stalwart against those who would substitute government programs for individual initiative.

And Doug Hoffman can win.

I urge all the voters of the 23rd Congressional District – Republican Democrat, Independent and Conservative to come out and vote for Doug Hoffman for Congress.